Friday, December 2, 2016

Final Project: Predictive Modeling of native sites in Dartmouth and Westport, MA


The study area for this project, located in southeastern MA, was home to native Wampanoags during the Archaic, Woodland, and Contact Periods. By 1800, their permanent and seasonal settlements along the shores of the Slocums, Little, Apponagansett, and Westport Rivers had disappeared.
Seasonal and permanent settlements had been reported along the shores of rivers from 1602 until 1800.  Trails and waterways were transportation routes used first by natives and later by colonial settlers.


By 1856, natives were no longer living in settlements but were dispersed throughout the community.

The Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is a starting point for creating a predictive model.

Elevation is divided into classes to show areas of similar values.  
A contour map is created so that slope and aspect maps can be derived from it.  
The slope map shows areas where the terrain is steep near the rivers.  These areas would not have been ideal for settlements.



Aspect illustrates places where the land faces N,S,E, or W.  Those areas facing south were often favored for settlements because of their warmer climate and protection from harsh winds.  Eastern and western facing slopes were the next most desirable.  North facing land was least desirable.
The resources found in rivers, streams, lakes, ponds, marshes and coastal areas were used by native people both seasonally and year-round.  The study area shows a far-reaching network of these environments.
Surface geology could have played a role in site selection.  However, more work needs to be done to identify characteristics that would have been favorable or not favorable, based on what is known about identified native sites.


To predict the location of unknown sites, environmental variables such as Elevation, Slope, and Aspect can be weighted and combined into a Weighted Overlay map which creates a pictures of  areas where sites are more or less likely to be found.
Several types of analysis can be done using known sites and random points to see if the predictive model is useful, and how the variables relate to one another and to the sites.  Elevation was a particularly useful variable in this model.