Predictive modeling can be a useful tool for archaeologists trying to narrow down likely areas where cultural resources may be found. Environmental factors such as proximity to water, soil and vegetation types, elevation, slope, and aspect (which direction a slope faces) are understood to have some value in predicting where settlement and activity occurred in the past. This type of information is becoming increasingly easy to acquire, and the resulting models can be used to narrow down areas where field survey is more likely to result in finding cultural remains. The map above shows a weighted overlay map indicating areas where there is a high, medium and low probability of finding archaeological material. By choosing specific variables, and by weighting them according to their relative importance, archaeologists can guide field survey, saving money and time. However, this technique has been criticized for being too focused on environmental variables, and not taking into account cultural factors that would likely impact choices made by those who settled in a particular area. Predictive modeling is currently used in CRM work most often. When used in an academic situation, it is critical that substantial ground-truthing and field survey are conducted in addition to the use of the predictive model.
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